Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Draft Analyzer is a completely free program that assists in drafting your fantasy football team by suggesting picks and predicting the picks of your opponents to give you an edge. This program can also be used to simulate random mock drafts. Draft Analyzer uses average draft position (ADP) data from either standard and point per reception (PPR) leagues of various team sizes and was last updated July 28th, 2015

Different prediction types include: Best available by ADP, Optimal One Pick Pick, and Optimal Two Pick Predictions.
Click here for more about draft analyzer's features and predictors

How to Use
1. Enter in the number of teams, roster settings and scoring type in the league settings table.
2. Begin drafting players. Type in the player name and click the "Draft Player" button.
3. If you want to make a prediction for the current pick, select your prediction type and click the show prediction button. Predicted picks are in italics.
4. If simulating a mock draft use the "Mock Pick" button to randomly simulate the next pick.
5. When your draft is complete select your team number and click the "Rate Team" button to export your draft to the Rate My Team Program.

Nobody wants to be the guy with the team name "Team lastname". You'll be known as uncreative. That will make it look like you don't care about your league! So change your name from the default for the sake of us all.

If you can't think of your own fantasy football name then take a look at the list below, you could find the name you've been searching for. Or spark an idea of your own. Some are funny, some are serious, its just a mix of solid team names (there used to be 50 but I expanded the list most recently prior to the 2015-2016 season). Got your own ideas? Leave them in a comment.
Recently expanded to include Top 64 QB's, 164 RB's, 220 WR's, and 119 TE's. No Defense or Kickers. Up to date as of July 28th, 2015
Select scoring settings, enter your players name below, select if he is a starter or not and press "Add Player" to display in depth custom stat projections and rankings based on your scoring settings for your fantasy football team.

This program ranks your team by comparing your team to the best and worst possible teams using your settings. For the best results (it doesn't matter in the end but more interesting as you go) enter your players in the order they were drafted. AND MAKE SURE YOU SET THE # OF TEAMS correctly.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

The biggest thing to keep track of during the 2015 NFL and Fantasy Football off-season is the roster swaps that happen via free agency and trades. In the past I have tried to keep a blog post updated that kept track of all free agency swaps but this year I thought I would source the job out to the internet community. View the full post for all 2015 NFL free agency, retirement, and trade information.

Monday, August 25, 2014

That time of year is back my friends, it is finally time to draft your fantasy football team (or seven if you're like me). It is well known that one of the keys to winning your fantasy league is identifying rookie talent. Rookies tend to be risky picks but for this reason they can also be valuable picks. Since it is once again draft season, here are 6 rookies that I love heading into the season:

Monday, June 2, 2014

Click here to check out Draft Analyzer

How to Use
1. Enter in the number of teams, roster settings and scoring type in the league settings table.
2. Begin drafting players. Type in the player name and click the "Draft Player" button.
3. If you want to make a prediction for the current pick, select your prediction type and click the show prediction button. Predicted picks are in italics.
4. If simulating a mock draft use the "Mock Pick" button to randomly simulate the next pick.
5. When your draft is complete select your team number and click the "Rate Team" button to export your draft to the Rate My Team Program.

Prediction Type Information
Best available by ADP: This simulates picks for the current team by always taking the best available player according to ADP. The current team's roster needs are not taken into about using this method

Optimal One Pick Prediction: This prediction type predicts the best available player for your team by taking into account your roster needs and roster maximums to modify the ADP data. For example, if you only have one starting quarterback slot and you have already drafted a quarterback this predictor will not suggest that you draft a back-up QB until the later rounds of the draft once the value increases over other positions. While if you are in a two quarterback league all quarterbacks are significantly boosted until you fill your two starting quarterback slots because the predictor recognizes the increased quarterback value with these league settings.

Optimal Two Pick Prediction: This method is the most computationally intensive as it simulates the current teams pick as if that team were to draft the top QB, RB, WR, TE, K, or DEF then it simulates all of the pick between the current teams current pick and the current teams next pick by drafting the Optimal One Pick Prediction for each team. Then it suggests the player that resulted in the highest combined value over the two picks. If few picks are between the current pick and the current teams next pick then this algorithm increases in accuracy. An example of when this algorithm would be exetremely useful is for the 9th pick in a 10 team league as the predictor would only have to predict two picks between the current and next pick. So continuing with this example if the 9th pick team had already drafted 1 running back and 1 receiver while the 10th pick team currently had 2 running backs. In this situation team 9's two pick predictor would boost the ADP ratings of the wide receivers as player 10 is likely to pick up a wide receiver. Thus it will suggest that you take a receiver first over an equally rated running back as that running back is more likely to be available for your next pick. The other useful feature of this predictor is that it will easily recognize tiers. If the value at a position is going to drop between your current pick and your next pick then this algorithm will boost the value of that position.

Mock Draft Selections
Use the "Mock Player" button to draft a player randomly. This essentially uses Optimal One Pick Predictions with a random scalar added the original ADP data.

Save Draft
Use the "Save Draft" button to format a URL Link that can be visited any time to pick up the draft where you left off. The button opens your new formatted URL link in a new tab. Simply copy and save this URL address for later.

Rate Team
Select the team number that you want to rate and click the "Rate Team" button. This will export the desired team to Analyze Fantasy Football's Rate my Team program using a similiar method as the Save Draft feature. This includes predictions if the "Show Prediction" button has been pressed, use the "Hide Predictions" button before pressing the "Rate My Team" button to remove all future predicted picks.

Increase Text Size
If the text size is too small for you to read hold Ctrl and press + until the page is of the size desired. To make the text size smaller hold Ctrl and press -.

Have a question?
If you have a question about draft analyzer please leave a comment here and I will get back to you as soon as possible.

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Jamaal Charles turns the corner and rushes upfieldValue based drafting can be an extremely useful metric when analyzing trends in previous fantasy football seasons for future use. For example, it could be used to gauge whether going RB heavy last year (as many suggested) really was a good strategy or if this line of thought was flawed.

This metric essentially compares each players point total to the point total of a baseline player for each position by subtracting the baseline players point total from each players point total. When using value based drafting the most important factor is the method used to pick the baseline player at each position. This article chooses its baseline players as explained in this article. Essentially the baseline player for each position is set to be the average number of players drafted at that position in the first 10 rounds of the fantasy football draft.

For example, if last year on average in a 10 team league 40 running backs were drafted in the first 10 rounds then the baseline would be set to 40. The baselines used for this example are based on 12 team leagues and on average: 17 QB's, 43 RB's, 40 WR's, 12 TE's, 6 DEF's, and 2 K's were drafted in the first 10 rounds of a 12 team draft thus the baselines were set at 17, 43, 40 and 12 respectively (DEF's and K's were neglected).

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

For every Andrew Luck story in fantasy football, there is a Ryan Leaf. Or a Javon Walker. (Remember him as a Raider? Neither do we.) 

The list goes on and on when it comes to highly touted players who don't perform to expectations -- despite preseason hype and immense potential. Whether it be a change in scenery, injuries -- or rookies having trouble adapting to the game -- there are already a few potential busts in the making for 2013. 

Sometimes talent is not enough -- without the right supporting cast or environment. It is a continuing theme as we kick off the list:
Colin Kaepernick (QB - San Francisco 49ers): From backup quarterback to ESPN Magazine Body Issue coverboy, Kaepernick's rise to fame last season was nothing short of spectacular, considering he garnered a 98.3 quarterback rating en route to leading the Niners to the Super Bowl. 

Saturday, June 22, 2013

In fantasy football it is often claimed that a player has a very stable or consistent output while other players are considered unstable or inconsistent. These statements refer to the players point output on a week to week basis. Some people will argue that you're better off with consistent players and thus discount the players with high week to week variation. I'm writing this article to argue that variance should have no effect on your decisions while drafting players and I will give a few arguments as to why high variant players can be to your advantage.

Statistically if both teams have a Gaussian distribution the variance has no effect on the probability of victory for either team. The probability of victory for either team would be...

(E[x] = Expected or mean value of x (essentially points per game), P[x] = Probability that x wins)

P[TeamA] = E[TeamA]/(E[TeamA] + E[TeamB])

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Welcome to another installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player and determine some projections based on past tendencies and then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. The criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.

Today we are going to talk about a player who has been a former number one overall pick in dynasty leagues and a lightning rod for debate this off-season, Houston Texans running back Arian Foster. We will put his betting line at 1,500 total yards and 12.5 total touchdowns.

I’ve been playing dynasty fantasy football for 15 years now and barring injury, I have never seen the dynasty community bail on a player faster than they have on Foster. I’ve mentioned it before; I often pick my topic based on Twitter conversations and trends. The Foster debate is never ending. You can pretty much pick a night and find someone arguing about Foster’s outlook and downward trend. They cite age, yards per carry, number of touches and more. If that doesn’t work, a very specific, obscure metric that eliminates 95% of the field will pop up to support whatever they’re trying to convince you of.

The dreaded age of the performance cliff for running backs has historically been at age 30, Foster will celebrate his 27th birthday just before week one of his

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